000 AXNT20 KNHC 021201 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT MAR 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 6N10W 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 28W...2S40W THEN INLAND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 2S/3S TO 50W. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BRAZIL COAST/COASTAL WATERS NEAR 1S/2S TO 1N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 3N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N10W 5N20W 5N30W 5N40W. ...DISCUSSION... MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N119W FORTY-EIGHT AGO NOW IS MOVING FROM EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHERN INTERIOR MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO TEXAS...AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 23N WEST OF 90W. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 35N70W TO NORTH CAROLINA TO GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI. A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 31N60W TO 25N70W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA TO 21N80W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE CENTRAL BELIZE COAST. IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE CLOUDS FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE BROKEN UP/ DISSIPATED. SHOWERS STILL ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY REMAINING AREAS OF CLOUDS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PREVALENT. THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS LARGELY CYCLONIC SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W...MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE EAST OF 75W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N27W TO 25N24W 15N40W DISAPPEARING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW CUTS ACROSS THE TROUGH. A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 30N27W... FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO BE STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE ITCZ TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. $$ MT