000 AXNT20 KNHC 020604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT MAR 02 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 6N10W 3N15W...2N24W...1N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W... TO 2S40W...THEN INLAND INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL AT 3N44W. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W JUST OFFSHORE...AND FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 50W AND 51W IN THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N10W 5N20W 3N30W 2N40W. ...DISCUSSION... MEXICO AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 32N119W FORTY-EIGHT AGO NOW IS MOVING FROM EASTERN ARIZONA INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES FROM WESTERN NEW MEXICO INTO NORTHERN INTERIOR MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 90W AND 115W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE U.S.A. FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO TEXAS...AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 23N WEST OF 90W. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 35N70W TO NORTH CAROLINA TO GEORGIA...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 32N59W TO 27N66W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 22N77W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N77W ACROSS CUBA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 21N80W TO 19N86W. PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI TO 14N80W TO THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. SOME OF THE CLOUDS ARE NOT NECESSARILY RELATED TO THE TROUGH...THEY ARE CAUGHT UP IN THE BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS IN THE AREA SOUTH OF 17N WEST OF 70W. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF 32N56W 27N64W 23N70W 22N77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS PREVALENT. THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW IS LARGELY CYCLONIC SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W...MUCH CLOSER TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE EAST OF 73W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF 60W. THE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 30N27W TO 23N27W 15N40W 13N44W. A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 28N27W... FORECAST BY THE GFS MODEL TO MOVE NORTHWARD ABOUT 5 KTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE ITCZ TO 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. $$ MT