000
AXNT20 KNHC 010547
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT MAR 01 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG 8N13W 3N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W... 
2S43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF THE EQUATOR 
TO THE S AMERICA COAST W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE STRONGEST 
WINDS AS INDICATED BY SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS ARE LOCATED N 
OF 25N WITH SPEEDS IN THE 60 TO 70 KNOT RANGE. A WEAK MIDDLE/ 
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX IS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF 
28N84W. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO 
MOVE INTO THE N GULF SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND RACE QUICKLY ACROSS 
THE GULF BY LATE SUNDAY. AT THE SURFACE WEAK RIDGING CUTS ACROSS 
THE AREA WITH EASTERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 20 KNOTS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY INDICATING STRONG SUBSIDENCE PARTICULARLY OVER THE SE 
PART. WESTERLY WINDS ARE STRONGEST ACROSS JAMAICA TO HONDURAS 
WITH WINDS AS HIGH AS 70 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS LOWER TO 15 TO 20 
KNOTS OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT THE SURFACE A 
WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH EASTERN CUBA TO 
EASTERN HONDURAS. A GALE WARNING IS LOCATED FROM 10N TO 13N 
BETWEEN 74W AND 76W WITH NE TO N WINDS 25 TO 35 KT AND SEAS 9 TO 
14 FT. SCATTERED WESTWARD MOVING SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FROM THE 
HAITI COAST S TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES INTO 
THE ATLANTIC AND GRADUALLY BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY N OF 20N 
BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A JET HAS ITS AXIS ALONG A LINE FROM THE 
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO 25N60W TO 32N50W. WINDS ARE STRONGEST 
BETWEEN 50W AND 60W AND MEASURE IN THE 50 TO 60 KNOT RANGE. 
MOVING DOWNSTREAM A LARGE WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N32W 
AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS FEATURE IS ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN 
DIAMETER. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE CIRCULATION THROUGH 
18N45W TO NEAR 10N55W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED 8 TO 10 DEGREES 
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 80 TO 100 KNOT JET ORIGINATES 
FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 10N45W THROUGH 18N30W TO BEYOND 
25N20W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N52W TO 25N66W 
ACROSS EASTERN CUBA. 

$$
CAB