000
AXNT20 KNHC 292315
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI FEB 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 5N20W 3N30W...CROSSING 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W...TO BRAZIL NEAR 2S43W.  WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 20W-22W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1035 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST NEAR 
37N71W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE AND CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  10-20 KT SELY 
FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NRN GULF N OF 24N.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  
SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N 
GULF N OF 25N.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N.  
EXPECT THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO REMAIN ZONAL OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SURFACE RIDGING TO PRODUCE 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 96W.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO 
HONDURAS ALONG 21N75W 18N82W 14N86W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT.  20-25 KT NELY SURFACE WINDS AND 
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE 
FRONT.  MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA HAVE FRESH TRADES.  NEAR GALE WINDS ARE HOWEVER NOTED 
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS 
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN.  A CLOUD FREE AREA IS 
ALONG THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA BETWEEN 64W-77W.  
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE 
AXIS ALONG 70W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  EXPECT... THE STATIONARY 
FRONT TO DRIFT N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND PRODUCE SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING SW TO E CUBA ALONG 
32N53W 23N70W 21N75W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONT.  A 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE AZORES AT 
40N22W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
N OF 20N AND W OF 60W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W.  AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N30W.  AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE TROPICS 
AT 10N50W.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. 

$$
FORMOSA