000
AXNT20 KNHC 291101
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 29 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 4N11W 3N21W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 29W THEN INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO THE COAST OF SW AFRICA BETWEEN 4W-8W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-8N 
BETWEEN 9W-16W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 4N ACROSS THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-29W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 94W FROM OVER MEXICO/TEXAS AND THE W 
GULF W OF 87W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING SOME TROPICAL 
MOISTURE ACROSS THE W GULF IN THE FORM OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS. 
THE E GULF IS COVERED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO 
MOVE OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE 
W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. CLEAR SKIES ARE OVER THE E GULF E OF 86W 
WHILE SCATTERED/BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE 
GULF W OF 86W WITH OVER LOW CLOUDS BANKING ALONG THE E 
TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST BY THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE 
THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA 
COAST. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT FRONT ENTERING THE GULF ON MON. 

CARIBBEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FAR E TIP 
OF CUBA JUST W OF JAMAICA TO INLAND OVER E/CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 
15N85W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W 
OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF CUBA...THE YUCATAN...AND THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND 
OVER SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS 
IN CONTROL OF THE E CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY 
TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER 
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATE 
TONIGHT INTO SAT. 

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH 
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N58W TO 
25N66W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST 
TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE FAR E TIP CUBA. 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
200 NM W OF THE FRONT AND BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. A JETSTREAM 
WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 120 KT IS OVER THE W ATLC WITHIN 330 NM W OF 
THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT 
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1029 MB HIGH LOCATED ALONG THE 
NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND BROKEN/OVERCAST COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS 
CLOUDS TO 80W. A COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC THROUGH 
THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED 
UPPER LOWS. THE ONLY UPPER LOW IN THE REGION IS LOCATED NEAR 
26N30W. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH DOES EXTENDING INTO THE 
REGION THROUGH 32N31W TO 28N33W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E 
AND CENTRAL ATLC W OF THE FRONT WITH SURFACE HIGHS N OF THE 
REGION AND A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE 
TROUGH. 

$$
WALLACE