000 AXNT20 KNHC 290533 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI FEB 29 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0345 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N7W 2N13W 2N22W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W THEN INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2S45W. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR 8N BETWEEN 3W-17W AND FROM THE EQUATOR 4N BETWEEN 21W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER MEXICO INTO TEXAS CLIPPING THE FAR W GULF ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS AND MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS COVERED BY A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE GULF WITH SCATTERED/BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITHIN 150 NM OF A LINE FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 25N92W TO OVER LOUISIANA BEING DIRECTED BY THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT FRONT ENTERING THE GULF ON MON. CARIBBEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N76W SE OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N85W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE E CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE AREA USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 66W. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N61W TO 23N71W WHERE IT PULLS UP STATIONARY ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N76W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT IS OVER THE W ATLC WITHIN 350 NM W OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A 1029 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. A COMPLEX UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E ATLC THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS. THE ONLY UPPER LOW IN THE REGION IS LOCATED NEAR 26N33W. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH DOES EXTENDING INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N30W TO 28N33W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH SURFACE HIGHS N OF THE REGION AND A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. $$ WALLACE