000
AXNT20 KNHC 282328
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 2N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 29W TO 1S45W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 
15W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 
30N84W PRODUCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW 
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.  10-20 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW 
DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO.  OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO 
S OF 21N.  A PATCH OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SE GULF OF 
MEXICO E OF 90W AND S OF 27N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH TROUGH 
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF.  EXPECT 
THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS TO BECOME ZONAL IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT 
SURFACE RIDGING TO PRODUCE ELY TO SELY FLOW DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. 

CARIBBEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM E CUBA TO 
HONDURAS ALONG 21N75W 18N83W 15N86W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE  
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  20-30 KT NLY SURFACE WINDS AND 
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF THE 
FRONT.  THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAVE 
MODERATE TRADES.  PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN.  A CLOUD FREE AREA IS HOWEVER ALONG 
THE COASTS OF VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA BETWEEN 64W-77W.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS 
ALONG 70W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT 
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SAME 
GENERAL AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.     

ATLANTIC...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING 
SW TO E CUBA ALONG 32N62W 25N70W 21N75W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N40W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 30N32W TO 26N40W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 
NM S OF THE TROUGH.  A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 
39N15W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
N OF 20N AND W OF 75W.  A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-75W.  AN 
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N32W.  ZONAL FLOW 
IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC S OF 15N FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES 
TO W AFRICA.  EXPECT...THE NRN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT...N OF 
25N TO MOVE E TO 32N52W IN 24 HOURS WHILE THE SRN PORTION OF THE 
FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY.

$$
FORMOSA