000
AXNT20 KNHC 281729
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N20W CROSSING THE EQUATOR 
NEAR 27W TO 1S45W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 15W-20W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF. A 95-100 
KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE FLORIDA 
KEYS...THE STRONGEST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET HAVE MOVED
E INTO THE ATLC. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE 
AIR COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES N OF AROUND 
27N AND SCATTERED/BROKEN  COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS S OF 
27N. NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BANK LOW CLOUDS OVER S MEXICO FROM 
VERA CRUZ TO TAMPICO. SURFACE HIGH PRES...1028 MB...OVER SE 
ALABAMA WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH SW TO THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN...
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN CUBA TO HONDURAS NEAR 
16N84W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM NW OF THE FRONT. ALSO BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS ARE N OF 15N E OF THE FRONT 
TO 75W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION INLAND OVER SOUTH 
AMERICA WITH BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE 
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.

ATLANTIC...
MID/UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA.
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N65W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 
21N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF 
THE FRONT N OF 24N WITH OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT AND 
WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT S OF 24N. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH 
WINDS 120-140 KT OVER THE W ATLC FROM S FLORIDA TO 28N75W WHERE 
WINDS INCREASE TO 150-175W THE JET CONTINUES NE TO BEYOND 
32N70W. A SHARPENING MID/UPPER RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N54W SW TO 
PUERTO RICO. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR 
COVERS THE ATLC BETWEEN 40W-60W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH 
AXIS FROM 32N30W TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 32N30W CONTINUING 
SW TO 17N50W. BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS SE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N29W TO 27N42W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID 
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE 
TROUGH. 

$$
DGS