000 AXNT20 KNHC 281131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU FEB 28 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N5W 4N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W THEN INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 3W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF 2.5N FROM 31W-33W AND 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 1N-4N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT IS IN THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 150 KT IS OVER THE SE GULF WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 22N90W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR NAPLES. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER MOST OF THE GULF WITH SCATTERED COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE SE GULF S OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO 23N92W. NE WINDS CONTINUE TO BANK LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER S MEXICO AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF TAMPICO W OF 94W. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AND WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GULF THROUGH SAT THEN SHIFT NE TO OVER THE CAROLINAS ON SUN. CARIBBEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N78W OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. CLUSTERS OF LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM SE OF THE FRONT INCLUDING JAMAICA WITH OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE E CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEAR STATIONARY TODAY AND THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ON FRI. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N65W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA NEAR 21N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT AND OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM W OF THE FRONT. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 160 KT IS OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA AND TO JUST OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA TO NORTH CAROLINA. BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 30N50W. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 26N BETWEEN 29W-35W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N33W TO 28N42W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 25N23W WITH NO SURFACE REFLECTION. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 15N E OF 65W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ANCHORED N OF THE REGION. $$ WALLACE