000
AXNT20 KNHC 280542
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST THU FEB 28 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 2N29W 1N41W CROSSING 
THE EQUATOR NEAR 50W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 6W-15W 
INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NW ATLC COVERING 
THE GULF N OF 20N ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT HAS 
EXITED THE GULF. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 150 KT 
IS OVER THE E GULF WITHIN 225 NM OF LINE FROM 21N93W ACROSS 
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC NEAR TAMPA. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER 
MOST OF THE GULF WITH COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE 
S GULF S OF A LINE FROM TAMPA FLORIDA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE 
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER S MEXICO AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST 
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING OVER THE GULF 
WITH A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 27N94W. A WEAK FRONT WILL SKIRT THE N 
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. 

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER ALL BUT THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT 
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THE COLD 
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF YESTERDAY NOW EXTENDS ACROSS 
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA TO INLAND OVER BELIZE NEAR 16N89W 
THEN GUATEMALA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF A LINE FROM E TIP OF CUBA TO CENTRAL 
HONDURAS TO THE FRONT WITH OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAINS IN CONTROL 
OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY 
TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THAT AREA. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEAR 
STATIONARY TODAY AND THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE ON FRI. 

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC WITH 
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N61W ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS 
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR SANTA CLARA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE WITHIN 175 NM E OF THE FRONT AND OVERCAST MULTILAYERED 
CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 175 NM W OF THE 
FRONT. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 170 KT IS OVER THE 
W ATLC W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE SE COASTAL STATES.  
BROAD UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE 
CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 30N52W. A WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH IS 
IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 27N BETWEEN 30W-37W WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N36W TO 
29N44W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A 
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 24N24W WITH NO SURFACE 
REFLECTION. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 10N E OF 
70W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE VICINITY OF THE DISSIPATING COLD 
FRONT. A 1030 BM HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 34N42W AND A 1028 MB HIGH 
IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. 

$$
WALLACE