000 AXNT20 KNHC 271133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED FEB 27 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N5W 3N11W 5N17W 1N33W 2N45W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 52W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 5W-17W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE NW ATLC COVERING THE GULF N OF 22N WITH THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT AT 27/0900 UTC ENTERING THE GULF ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS SW ALONG 23N88W 21N92W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 18N93W WITH LOW CLOUDS BANKING ALONG THE SE SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS WHERE A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS. HEAVY SHOWERS/ SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM SE OF THE FRONT E OF 88W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF TO OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS WELL AS S OF 21N OVER THE ENTIRE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT THEN DIMINISH LATER TODAY. A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 140 KT IS OVER THE GULF N OF 24N WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS N OF 29N FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER. SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR OVER THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO THE NE MEXICAN COAST N OF TAMPICO. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO THE AREA OF CLEAR SKIES. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER N TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF INTO THE CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY. CARIBBEAN... BROAD BUT FLAT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH IN THE SW TROPICAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALSO REMAINS IN CONTROL OF MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATER THIS MORNING. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN USHERING SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM TOBAGO ALONG 15N71W TO 16N82W INCLUDING THE LESSER AND GREATER ANTILLES. THE FRONT IN THE GULF WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING STALLING ACROSS THE W PORTION THU/FRI. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E U.S. IS MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC EXTENDING THE COLD FRONT AT 27/0900 UTC THROUGH 32N77W TO A WEAK 1005 MB LOW NEAR 30N79W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BETWEEN MELBOURNE AND WEST PALM BEACH. AN UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 28N60W PROVIDING UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO ENHANCE A BROAD AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE FRONT. UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 37W-47W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N43W TO 27N53W WHERE IT DIMINISHES TO 26N57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N WITH A 1021 MB HIGH NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 30N53W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE E ATLC NEAR 25N25W WITH NO SURFACE REFLECTION. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 20N E OF 65W ANCHORED BY 1028 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N26W AND BRIDGING THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT. $$ WALLACE