000 AXNT20 KNHC 261744 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE FEB 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 4N23W 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 35W TO 2S44W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG COLD FRONT IS TRACKING FAIRLY QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE REGION ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S MEXICO ALONG 31N86W 26N92W 21N97W. DOPPLER RADAR DEPICTS LINES OF SCATTERED TSTMS WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. SFC PRESSURES ARE LOWEST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY INFERRING A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 21N96W...SEEN AS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ON VIS IMAGES. ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS IS NOTED IN DEEP LAYER W TO SWLY FLOW ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH UNSEASONABLE VALUES OF THE MID-UPPER 80'S F IN S FLA. BEHIND THE FRONT...MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS FILTERING IN ADVECTED BY NLY WINDS TO GALE FORCE. DESPITE THE SHORT FETCH...THESE STRONG WINDS ARE BUILDING SEAS TO 10 FT AT BUOY 42020 JUST OFF THE S TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE REGION BY TOMORROW MORNING ALLOWING THE COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO PENETRATE FURTHER SE. WINDS SHOULD FALL BELOW GALE FORCE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRES BUILDS EWD ACROSS THE NRN WATERS. CARIBBEAN... ZONAL MID TO UPPER FLOW AND ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT IS PROVIDING A STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION. THIS SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT IS CAPPING THE TYPICAL SCATTERED PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS...WHICH ARE MOST ORGANIZED E OF 78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED IN THESE CLOUD PATCHES STEERED FAIRLY QUICKLY WWD BY THE TRADES. TRADE WINDS ARE MODERATE AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA DUE TO THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT NEAR THE SEMI-PERMANENT LOW OVER COLOMBIA ...WHICH IS A LITTLE MORE APPARENT TODAY ON VIS IMAGES. THE STRONG COLD FRONT IN THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE CARIB DURING THE DAY TOMORROW BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL AND WASH OUT THU AND FRI. ATLANTIC... MODEST DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS STILL HOLDING GROUND OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTED BY A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 28N69W. THE SFC RIDGE IS SLIGHTLY INTERRUPTED BY THE TAIL END OF A DYING STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 1003 MB LOW NEAR 36N50W...AND A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 78W FROM 26N-31N. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL NEAR THESE SUBTLE FEATURES OR ELSEWHERE OVER THE W ATLC. THE WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO PRONOUNCED TROUGHING WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CORNER LATER TODAY. THE SFC PATTERN IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1028 MB S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N26W. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING WWD...EXCEPT FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EWD WHERE SAHARAN AIR HAS DRIED OUT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. ALOFT...A PAIR UPPER CUT OFF LOWS ARE SPINNING NEAR 27N25W AND A MORE DEFINED ONE OVER MOROCCO. A SHORTWAVE LIES TO THE S OF THE WRN UPPER LOW ALONG 33W/34W. AN UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED IN THE DEEP TROPICS OVER AFRICA NEAR 11N3W. A SWLY JET IS INDUCED BETWEEN THESE UPPER SYSTEMS PRODUCING/ADVECTING A SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. $$ CANGIALOSI