000
AXNT20 KNHC 261101
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 4N20W 2N30W 1N35W 1N47W 
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 4W-16W 
INCLUDING THE COAST OF SW AFRICA AND WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE AXIS 
FROM 43W-50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE 
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 23W-36W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND 
INTO THE NW GULF WITH THE ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT AT 
26/0900 UTC ENTERING THE GULF OVER W LOUISIANA NEAR 30N93W OFF 
THE TEXAS COAST TO A 1004 MB LOW INLAND OVER S TEXAS W OF 
BROWNSVILLE NEAR 26N98W THEN CONTINUING NE ALONG THE E SLOPES OF 
THE SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THIS FRONT ARE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA...S 
MISSISSIPPI...N ALABAMA...INTO E TENNESSEE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE 
VERY RAPIDLY EAST OVER THE N GULF AND WILL SLIDE RAPIDLY S ALONG 
THE SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD. A 
STRONG JETSTREAM IS INLAND ACROSS TEXAS THEN NE OVER TENNESSEE 
TO NEW ENGLAND. WESTERLY UPPER ZONAL FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE 
GULF. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR CURRENTLY 
COVER MOST OF THE GULF BUT WILL CHANGE WITH THE FRONT PASSAGE. 
SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE BANKING ALONG THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA IN 
RESPONSE TO THE RETURN FLOW OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER 
THE W ATLC. CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF 
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE NW COAST 
OF CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. 

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD BUT FLAT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED 
BY AN UPPER HIGH IN THE SW TROPICAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY STABLE AIR ALSO REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE 
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC HAS RELAXED...THUS DIMINISHING THE 
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BUT THEY REMAIN 
MODERATE TO STRONG ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THESE 
TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF A 
LINE FROM TRINIDAD ALONG 14N73W TO 13N82W. THE FRONT IN THE GULF 
WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN WED AND STALL ACROSS THE W PORTION 
ON THU. 

ATLANTIC...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 50W WITH THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1005 MB LOW N OF THE 
REGION THROUGH 32N55W ALONG 28N62W TO 25N70W WHERE IT DISSIPATES 
TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 24N77W. THE FRONT N OF 27N 
CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
75 NM OF E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 
NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 76W-79W INCLUDING THE 
NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS. A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH IS JUST E OF THE N 
BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N75W AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE W 
ATLC AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
THE NE ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE W TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 
A LINE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N28W TO A 
WEAKER UPPER LOW NEAR 15N41W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER 
THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 33N26W. 
TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC ANCHORED BY 
AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER OVER SW AFRICA. 

$$
WALLACE