000 AXNT20 KNHC 260529 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 1N30W 1N41W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 2N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 3W-13W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS FROM 19W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE GULF IF UNDER UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WITH AN ASSOCIATED STRONG FRONT STILL INLAND OVER MISSOURI THROUGH TEXAS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS RETREATING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS BANKING ALONG THE N GULF COAST IN RESPONSE TO THE RETURN FLOW OF THE RETREATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE GULF LATER THIS MORNING MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE GULF EXITING WED AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE W GULF LATE TODAY BUT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE FRONT EXITS THE GULF. IN THE MEAN TIME...CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE NW COAST OF CUBA. CARIBBEAN... BROAD UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALSO REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT AS WELL AS SHIFTED EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BUT REMAIN MODERATE/STRONG ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS DOT THE CARIBBEAN BUT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN WED AND STALL ACROSS THE W PORTION ON THU. ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N W OF 50W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 33N59W ALONG 29N62W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS TO 24N78W. THE FRONT N OF 27N IS MOVING RAPIDLY EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 76W-80W INCLUDING THE NORTHERN BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE W TROPICAL ATLC ALONG A LINE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 23N29W TO A WEAKER UPPER LOW NEAR 15N40W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE E AND CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 33N25W. TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E TROPICAL ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF GUINEA AFRICA. A WEAK JETSTREAM IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY WITH WINDS OF 80 TO 95 KT WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 16N30W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 21N16W. $$ WALLACE