000 AXNT20 KNHC 251742 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON FEB 25 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N25W 1N38W EQUATOR49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N E OF 18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TRANQUIL CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE GULF SUPPORTED BY ZONAL FLOW AND WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT. THE DRIEST AIR IS FROM 24N-27N E OF 93W WHERE THE UPPER FLOW IS MORE CONFLUENT. ALSO AIDING IN THE TRANQUILITY IS A WEAK 1019 MB SFC HIGH ANALYZED IN THE N CENTRAL GULF NEAR 27N89W. THIS WEAK PRES PATTERN IS ALLOWING WINDS TO BE LIGHT AT THE MOMENT...BUT SLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE SOON IN THE W GULF AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL DRAG A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATER TONIGHT SWEEPING THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY MIDDAY WED. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL REPLACE THE WARM HUMID AIRMASS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...ADVECTED BY NLY WINDS TO GALE FORCE. CARIBBEAN... FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE REGION BENEATH A SUBSIDENT MID TO UPPER RIDGE ALONG 78W AND A WEAK NARROW SHORTWAVE ALONG 87W/88W. THIS DRY ENVIRONMENT ALOFT IS CAPPING THE TYPICAL SCATTERED LOW CLOUD STREAMERS...WHICH ARE MOST DENSE E OF 68W ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO FAIRLY DENSE ALONG THE CARIB COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA...WHERE THE WIND FLOWS UPSLOPE. AS ALWAYS...EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS NOTED IN SAN JUAN'S 88-D. TRADE WINDS ARE MODERATE TODAY...STRONGEST IN THE TYPICAL ZONE NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WESTERN ATLANTIC... A NEWLY FORMED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010 MB LOW JUST N OF THE AREA ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N66W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG 27N73W 24N80W. A NARROW 60 NM BROKEN LINE OF CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS MARK THE BOUNDARY. A STALLED FRONT LIES TO THE E OF THE LOW ALONG 32N56W 29N69W. AT 12Z...THIS FRONT WAS A SEPARATE FEATURE...NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. HOWEVER...LATEST SAT IMAGES SHOW A MERGING OF THIS BOUNDARY WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM...SO ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE AT 18Z. LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS SCATTERED TSTM ACTIVITY NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE FRONT DRAPED TO ITS E N OF 28N BETWEEN 62W-69W. THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN ATLC IS FAIRLY QUIET BENEATH FAIRLY STRONG ZONAL FLOW OR SLIGHT RIDGING AND ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF A SFC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. EASTERN ATLANTIC... A 1028 MB SFC HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 34N25W IS WELL IN CONTROL OF THE SFC PRES PATTERN. TYPICAL PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING WWD...EXCEPT FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EWD WHERE SAHARAN AIR HAS DRIED OUT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. ALOFT...AN UPPER CUT OFF LOW IS SPINNING NEAR 27N30W WITH AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SW TO 17N47W. AN UPPER HIGH IS SITUATED IN THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR 9N20W. A SWLY JET IS INDUCED BETWEEN THESE UPPER SYSTEMS PRODUCING/ADVECTING A SWATH OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. $$ CANGIALOSI