000
AXNT20 KNHC 250520
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 25 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N8W 3N13W 2N29W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 38W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS FROM 9W-21W AND 
WITHIN 120/150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 33W-36W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF 
SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 10W-17W. 

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LOW IS MOVING ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA WITH THE SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF IF UNDER NEAR UPPER WESTERLY ZONAL FLOW. WEAK HIGH 
PRESSURE IS OVER THE GULF WITH A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIA S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE 
WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS OVER THE W GULF AND WILL 
CONTINUE THIS MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT 
MOVES INTO THE GULF MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING. 

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE AREA ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH 
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR 
DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN. THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC 
IS BEGINNING TO WEAKEN THUS THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO 
BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERLY TRADE 
WINDS CONTINUES TO BRING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER 
PORTIONS OF THE AREA...MAINLY OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER 
ANTILLES. 

ATLANTIC...
THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER LOW MOVING 
ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA EXTENDS S OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND 
IN THE W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 73W. A 1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS NEAR 
32N77W AND COMBINED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SHOWERS/ 
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 30N76W THROUGH 32N76W TO 
35N74W. BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING 
A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N57W TO 29N65W WHERE IT 
CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 
27N78W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED 
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM S AND E OF 
THE FRONT E OF 80W. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS 
FROM THE FRONT TO N OF THE REGION. BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE 
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NE FROM HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N45W. AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE W 
TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS CENTERED NEAR 
36N11W...27N34W...AND 17N45W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE 
ATLC E OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 34N26W. AN 
UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH S OF THE 
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 10N22W AND A JETSTREAM IS ALONG THE N 
PERIPHERY WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT WITHIN 200/250 NM OF LINE 
FROM 15N40W 24N24W INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 25N15W. 

$$
WALLACE