000 AXNT20 KNHC 221104 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N17W 3N38W EQ51W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 13W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 24W-27W AND FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 38W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 83W COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF INTO THE W ATLC. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS S MEXICO IN THE FORM OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS EXTENDING FROM A 1008 MB LOW OVER W/CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO CORPUS CHRISTI THEN W OVER S TEXAS. A WARM FRONT AS ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR JACKSONVILLE INTO THE W ATLC LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TEXAS COAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE GULF OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS COLOMBIA ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS S MEXICO IN THE FORM OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM TRINIDAD ALONG 14N73W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE SUN THROUGH TUE AS THE ATLC HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. ATLANTIC... UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 68W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 21N FROM 50W-68W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N57W EXTENDING SW TO 26N66W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N77W CONTINUING AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE N GULF COAST STATES JUST N OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT W OF 74W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S SPAIN/PORTUGAL ACROSS THE E ATLC THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N24W ALONG 25N35W TO A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N43W TO E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 12N56W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N21W WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE E AREA AND IS AMPLIFIED N OVER THE E ATLC. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT IS WITHIN 250/300 NM IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY EXTENDING FROM 20N32W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER NW AFRICA NEAR 31N10W. THIS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE N WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 16N41W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO OVER W AFRICA NEAR 30N10W. $$ WALLACE