000
AXNT20 KNHC 220533
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 22 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N19W 2N30W EQ49W. CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE 
FROM EQ10W TO 2N20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 3N35W TO 4N38W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN 
CHANNEL TO OVER THE N GULF NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF 
LOUISIANA COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF INTO THE W ATLC. A WARM FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA FROM DAYTONA BEACH 
THROUGH TALLAHASSEE TO PENSACOLA CONTINUING INLAND TO A 1005 MB 
LOW OVER E TEXAS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
INLAND OVER AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE. THE SURFACE RIDGE HAS RETREATED EASTWARD IN ADVANCED 
OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE GULF LATER TODAY. 

CARIBBEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS COLOMBIA THROUGH 
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE 
CARIBBEAN EXCEPT IN THE FAR NW WHERE TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE 
E PACIFIC IS BEING ADVECTED ACROSS S MEXICO IN THE FORM OF THIN 
HIGH CLOUDS. MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING 
IN SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM TRINIDAD 
ALONG 14N74W TO THE E TIP ON HONDURAS. THE TRADE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH LATE SUN THROUGH TUE AS THE ATLC HIGH 
PRESSURE WEAKENS.

ATLANTIC...
UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS 
FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC W OF 70W. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 20N FROM 55W-70W 
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N59W 
EXTENDING SW TO 26N66W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT 
TO JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W CONTINUING AS A WARM FRONT 
ACROSS FLORIDA TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST STATES. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT W OF 75W 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S SPAIN/PORTUGAL ACROSS THE E ATLC THROUGH 
AN UPPER LOW NEAR 31N24W ALONG 25N35W TO A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW 
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N44W TO JUST E OF THE LESSER 
ANTILLES NEAR 12N58W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST W OF THE 
CANARY ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 31N18W TO 24N23W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT AND ANCHORED 
BY A 1033 MB HIGH NE OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E 
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N21W WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE E 
AREA AND IS AMPLIFIED N OVER THE E ATLC. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS 
OF 90 TO 130 KT IS WITHIN 200/300 NM IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY 
EXTENDING FROM 20N33W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER 
NW AFRICA NEAR 31N10W. THIS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP 
TROPICAL MOISTURE N WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 15N41W ACROSS THE 
CANARY ISLANDS TO OVER W AFRICA NEAR 30N10W. 

$$
WALLACE