000 AXNT20 KNHC 212336 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU FEB 21 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 2N30W EQ50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 7W-15W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 2S-4N BETWEEN 35W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC...A WARM FRONT EXTENDS INLAND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO CENTRAL LOUISIANA ALONG 27N80W 30N85W 31N93W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 30N TO BEYOND 31N BETWEEN 83W-87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER THE REMAINDER OF FLORIDA. THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO HAS 15-20 KT SLY SURFACE FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF NEAR NAPLES FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 85W. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN GULF. EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE DRIFTING N OVER N FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A NEW COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF IN 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM S LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO WITH LIGHT SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG TRADES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO HONDURAS. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOSTLY N OF 12N AND E OF 81W MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF PANAMA NEAR 13N80W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 65W. THE W EDGE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N60W TO THE NRN BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ALONG 32N60W 28N66W 26N77W 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC W OF THE AZORES NEAR 40N33W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO 25N60W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 65W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N45W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-25N BETWEEN 35W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER E ATLANTIC E OF 35W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 1N28W TO BEYOND 25N13W. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM 13N40W TO 20N30W 23N10W. $$ FORMOSA