000 AXNT20 KNHC 211110 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU FEB 21 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N21W 2N35W 1N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 11W-14W WITH SMALL CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 4W-11W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 5N ACROSS THE EQUATOR W OF 43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH SMALL CLUSTERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 30W-43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE N GULF NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS IN THE SE GULF EXTENDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 24N FROM 80W-84W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE FAR E GULF E OF 84W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PRODUCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH CONFLUENCE AT THE LOWER LEVELS IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N FROM 84W-94W WHILE THE AREA S OF 24N W OF 84W REMAINS REMARKABLE CLEAR THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF W OF 90W WITH ANOTHER FRONT ENTERING THE GULF EARLY FRI. CARIBBEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS COLOMBIA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL/W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 84W. MODERATE/ STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF 14N W OF 83W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 24N FROM 60W-80W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N62W EXTENDING SW TO 28N70W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AS WELL AS S OF 30N W OF 77W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC INTO THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N28W ALONG 27N40W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 17N49W INTO THE CARIBBEAN TO 12N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT ABOVE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N19W WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS AND IS AMPLIFIED N OVER THE E ATLC NE BEYOND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 130 KT IS WITHIN 300/350 NM IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY EXTENDING FROM 20N40W 30N20W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 32N9W INCLUDING THE CANARY AND MADEIRA ISLANDS. THIS UPPER FLOW CONTINUES TO PUMP TROPICAL MOISTURE N WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM 15N45W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO OVER W AFRICA NEAR 30N10W. $$ WALLACE