000 AXNT20 KNHC 202327 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED FEB 20 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 3N30W 1S44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 3S-EQ BETWEEN 40W-48W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FURTHER N FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 47W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W. THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 24N80W 24N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. FURTHER N ... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 26N-27N BETWEEN 87W-90W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF E TEXAS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 93W-95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE N GULF N OF 26N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE SRN GULF. EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO MOVE N AS A WARM FRONT AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA IN 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG TRADES ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO GUATEMALA. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOSTLY N OF 14N MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF PANAMA NEAR 12N80W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 65W. THE W EDGE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT A SLIGHT DECREASE OF SHOWERS OVER OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N64W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 28N70W 24N80W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 29N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 62W-67W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N49W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A WEAK 1018 MB LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N38W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 20N41W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 60W-70W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 16N50W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-28N BETWEEN 40W-60W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 6N22W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS E OF 40W. A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A 90-110 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE NW FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ALONG 10N45W 22N30W 30N10W. $$ FORMOSA