000 AXNT20 KNHC 201738 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED FEB 20 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 3N25W 2N40W EQUATOR AT 48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITH 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 43W AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 47W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH WLY WINDS ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. A 100-120 KT JETSTREAM IS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM OFF THE N TEXAS COAST TO NEAR TAMPA BAY. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING EWD ALONG THE JET...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE S OF 25N. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 24N88W WHERE IT IS DISSIPATING TO 23N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT E OF 87W. AN ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOPED WITHIN 60 NM 27N90W..BUT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE SOON. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W. CARIBBEAN... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N77W. A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGES EXTEND FROM THE CIRCULATION NW ACROSS NICARAGUA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ANOTHER RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM THE CIRCULATION TO HISPANIOLA CONTINUING INTO THE ATLC. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR SO SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO STRONG ELY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED N OF 17N FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ATLANTIC... BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN ATLC N OF 27N W OF 75W. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 32N65W TO 26N74W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS NE FROM HISPANIOLA TO BEYOND 32N51W. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH E E OF THE RIDGE WITH AXIS FROM 32N131W TO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 17N50W CONTINUING SW TO 12N57W. A 105-115 KT SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM IS SE OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 19N46W TO 25N33W WHERE THE WINDS INCREASE TO 135-145 KT AND CONTINUES NE TO 32N13W WHERE IT CURVES SE INTO AFRICA. ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN 500 NM SE OF THE JET IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS WITHIN 600 NM NW OF THE JET W OF 40W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SE OF THE TROUGH AND JET. A WEAK 1019 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N38W WITH TROUGH TO 25N36W THEN SW TO 26N45W. $$ DGS