000 AXNT20 KNHC 201155 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED FEB 20 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N8W 4N15W 6N19W 3N27W 3N43W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 51W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 8W-22W WITH LARGER CLUSTERS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 38W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERED THE E HALF OF THE U.S. IS MOVING OVER THE NW ATLC REMAINING IN THE GULF N OF 26N ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 23N81W TO 24N88W WHERE IT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH N AS A WARM FRONT TO NEAR 22N95W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N E OF 86W INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA AND OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. JETSTREAM IS OVER THE N GULF WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT N OF 24N ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE BAHAMAS. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE NE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W AND GIVING MOST OF THE GULF RETURN FLOW BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NW GULF W OF 87W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF FRI. CARIBBEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE COLOMBIA TO CENTRAL CUBA THEN CONTINUING NE INTO THE W ATLC. BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT IS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO AS THIN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 77W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF 17N FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 26N W OF 65W. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 32N66W EXTENDING SW TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 25N77W CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS A STATIONARY FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 29N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N60W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE E ATLC NEAR 28N36W SW TO A SECOND UPPER LOW IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N52W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 12N70W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY TO A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1019 MB LOW NEAR 26N38W E ALONG 25N36W THEN SW TO 22N38W TO 23N46W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND ARE N OF 27N FROM 30W-37W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN THE FRONTS ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 34N48W. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICS AND CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY N TO OVER THE E ATLC TO THE MERIDA ISLANDS. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 150 KT IS WITHIN 350/400 NM IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY EXTENDING FROM 20N30W 31N17W ACROSS TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 28N23W INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS AND WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 130 TO 150 KT WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 24N36W TO 31N21W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ALSO ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM 10N46W ALONG 21N37W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 23N17W. $$ WALLACE