000 AXNT20 KNHC 192328 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE FEB 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 5N20W 2N30W 1N40W AND INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE AXIS AND 4N FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO 15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100Z...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS TO NEAR 22N86W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 23N88W 22N91W AND INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. BROKEN TO LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVELS CLOUDS...WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...IS WITHIN 30 NM S AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. NORTH OF THE FRONT...A RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1028MB SFC HIGH OVER SE LOUISIANA. MODERATE TO STRONG RETURN FLOW IS RESULTING IN LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS BACKING UP AGAINST THE EASTERN SIERRA MADRE RANGE...COVERING THE GULF W OF 88W. ALOFT...NEAR ZONAL FLOW SOUTH OF AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN IS TRANSPORTING UPPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE EXTREME SW GULF. CARIBBEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN TRANSPORTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO CUBA. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ATLC STRETCHES SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE W OF 70W. MODERATE TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN LOW-LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION N OF 15N. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. ATLANTIC... A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE W ATLC. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 31N71W AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS NEAR 24N81W. A BROAD AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND UP TO 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FURTHER EAST... A 1018 MB SFC LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N38W WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTH TO 33N35W AND THEN TURNING SOUTH AND ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 30N33W. THE COLD FRONT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE FROM 25N36W TO 21N46W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS N OF 27N BETWEEN 31W AND 38W. BETWEEN THE TWO FRONTS... THE CENTRAL ATLC IS COVERED BY A RIDGE AROUND A 1029 MB SFC HIGH NORTH OF THE AREA. ALOFT...A JET WITH CORE VELOCITIES NEAR 130 KT IS ELONGATED SW TO NE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 9N17W. THE JET IS TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND INTO THE COAST OF AFRICA. $$ WADDINGTON