000 AXNT20 KNHC 191122 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 2N25W 4N41W 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF 6N FROM 11W-14W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 37W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE GULF N OF 24N ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NW ATLC. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA S OF FORT MYERS ALONG 23N86W WHERE IT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG 22N89W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 19N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH PATCHES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 88W AND WITH 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. JETSTREAM REMAINS OVER THE N GULF COAST WITH WINDS TO 100 KT N OF 26N FROM E TEXAS ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN AND PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ENHANCING THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED ENERGY WILL EXIT THE GULF LATER TODAY WITH A REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINING ACROSS EXTREME S GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN PUSH BACK NORTH ON TUE. CARIBBEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TO E CUBA THEN CONTINUING N INTO THE W ATLC. BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT IS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AS FAR N AS CUBA AS THIN HIGH CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF SHOWERS N OF A LINE FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N61W 14N72W TO 20N84W INCLUDING THE GREATER ANTILLES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW ATLC CLIPPING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE REGION N OF 26N W OF 75W. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 32N74W EXTENDING ACROSS S FLORIDA BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH AND FORT LAUDERDALE CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM ACROSS E CUBA TO BEYOND BERMUDA. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 32N37W SW ALONG 23N47W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 14N70W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N34W EXTENDING ALONG 27N37W TO 24N45W THEN DISSIPATING TO NEAR 24N50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 29N FROM 32W-39W. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER THE W ATLC BRIDGING THE FRONT AND COVERING THE AREA FROM 35W TO THE W ATLC FRONT. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS AND A JETSTREAM WITH MAX WINDS OF 115 KT IS WITHIN 375/425 NM ALONG THE N PERIPHERY EXTENDING FROM 18N41W 27N26W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 27N13W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ALSO ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN 350 NM OF LINE FROM 10N41W TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N27W. $$ WALLACE