000 AXNT20 KNHC 190558 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE FEB 19 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N26W 4N39W EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 7N40W TO 6N45W AND CLUSTERS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 2N15W TO 3N18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 45W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THE GULF N OF 24N ACROSS NE FLORIDA INTO THE NW ATLC. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR FORT MYERS ALONG 25N85W TO 24N90W WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY ALONG 22N93W INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT E OF 88W. POLAR JET REMAINS OVER THE N GULF COAST N OF 28N AND MERGING WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH EXTENDS N OF A LINE FROM 23N91W ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE W ATLC. MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF 100 KT WITHIN THE JET ARE OVER THE NE GULF COAST N OF 29N E OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA ACROSS FLORIDA. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN AND PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 24N87W TO OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR MERIDA. THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE GULF LATER TODAY WITH A REMNANT BOUNDARY REMAINING ACROSS EXTREME S GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN BACK NORTH ON TUE. CARIBBEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE GULF OF VENEZUELA TO E CUBA THEN CONTINUING N INTO THE W ATLC. BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT IS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AS FAR N AS CUBA MOSTLY AS THIN HIGH CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE CARIBBEAN E OF 76W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME ISOLATED PATCHES OF SHOWERS MOSTLY OVER THE GREATER AND LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E HALF OF THE U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE NW ATLC CLIPPING THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE REGION. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE ATLC NEAR 32N77W EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 28N78W TO BEYOND 32N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT W OF 78W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND WITHIN WITHIN 90 NM W OF THE ENTIRE COLD FRONT IN THE ATLC REGION. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM ACROSS E CUBA TO BEYOND 32N67W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR 33N38W SW ALONG 25N45W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TO NEAR 15N65W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N36W EXTENDING ALONG 27N40W TO 25N49W THEN DISSIPATING TO NEAR 26N54W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM S AND E OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER THE W ATLC BRIDGING THE FRONT AND COVERING THE AREA FROM 45W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICS AND A JETSTREAM WITH MAX WINDS OF 105 KT IS WITHIN 350/400 NM ALONG THE N PERIPHERY EXTENDING FROM 17N41W 26N25W ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 27N13W. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ALSO ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN 225/250 NM OF LINE FROM 10N39W OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 22N18W. $$ WALLACE