000
AXNT20 KNHC 190005
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON FEB 18 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... 
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 4N40W EQ50W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-1N BETWEEN 29W-32W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 35W-50W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS 
NEAR 32N98W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO ALONG 29N81W 27N83W 24N90W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES 
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 22N93W 18N94W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 
82W-84W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF 
THE FRONTS.  WINDS ARE NLY 10-20 KY N OF THE FRONT.  WINDS ARE 
SLY 20 KT OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.  WINDS ARE SLY 5-10 KT 
ELSEWHERE S OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE SUPPORTING THE ABOVE MENTIONED SURFACE FRONTS.  
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH SE AND EXTEND FROM S FLORIDA TO 
W CUBA...AND CONTINUE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...IN 24 HOURS WITH 
CONVECTION.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TRADES DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONG TRADES ALONG 
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
OVER PANAMA FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 77W-79W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS 
INLAND OVER COSTA RICA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER N ALONG 
THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 
83W-86W.  MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE CARIBBEAN SEA MOSTLY N 
OF 15N.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N 
OF N COLOMBIA NEAR 13N73W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 65W.  THE 
W EDGE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W.  ERN 
PACIFIC MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE SPREADING N OVER 
CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE REMAINDER OF THE 
SEA HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER W CUBA DUE TO 
THE COLD FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.     

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 2100 UTC A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N78W TO CENTRAL 
FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE 
COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 29N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 76W-78W.  THE 
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 
32N38W 29N40W 27N48W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE 
FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 
65W.  A LARGE TROUGH IS N OF 8N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL 
HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC NEAR 5N25W.  ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW IS E OF 40W.  A PLUME OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A 90-110 
KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE NW FLANK OF THE CIRCULATION PRODUCING 
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ALONG 10N40W 17N30W 23N16W.       

$$
FORMOSA