000 AXNT20 KNHC 180524 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON FEB 18 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N21W 1N32W 2N39W 1N45W 1N51W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 22W-30W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 30W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO THE GULF N OF 22N TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH A COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE LEADING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO A WEAKENING 1006 MB LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N92W CONTINUING ALONG 24N95W TO A SECOND OROGRAPHICALLY INDUCED 1005 MB LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 20N95W. A SECOND REINFORCING COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OVER SW LOUISIANA NEAR VERMILION BAY TO INLAND OVER TEXAS BETWEEN HOUSTON AND CORPUS CHRISTI. A SQUALL LINE CONSISTING OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD OF THE EASTERN FRONT EXTENDING WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 28N88W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR PANAMA CITY THEN S GEORGIA WEAKENING SOMEWHAT OVER SOUTH CAROLINA. POLAR JET REMAINS OVER THE N GULF COAST AND MERGES WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET WHICH EXTENDS FROM S TEXAS ACROSS NE FLORIDA. MAXIMUM UPPER LEVEL WINDS WITHIN THE JET ARE NEAR 110 KT ACROSS FAR S TEXAS AND THE NW GULF. THE REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT AND GIVE THE FIRST BOUNDARY AND EXTRA PUSH...MOVING INTO THE E GULF AND FLORIDA LATER ON MON. CARIBBEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND THE AXIS CENTERED ALONG 75W INTO THE W ATLC. BROAD SW FLOW ALOFT IS DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AS FAR N AS W CUBA MOSTLY AS THIN HIGH CLOUDS. FARTHER E...UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE MORE CONFLUENT AND THUS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME PATCHES OF SHOWERS MOSTLY N OF 16N E OF 80W AND OVER ALL OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. ATLANTIC... THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS TO BEYOND 32N ALONG 75W COVERING THE AREA W OF 65W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 18N FROM 43W-65W WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N48W EXTENDING SW TO 29N53W THEN W TO 30N60W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N38W ALONG 28N43W TO 26N51W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SURFACE RIDGE IS AGAIN BUILDING S OVER THE W ATLC BRIDGING THE FRONT AND COVERING THE AREA TO THE BAHAMAS. THE LARGE CUT-OFF UPPER LOW THAT HAS PLAGUED THE E ATLC THE PAST WEEK IS RETREATING N AND IS JUST E OF THE AZORES. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE AGAIN COVERS THE TROPICS AND A JETSTREAM WITH MAX WINDS OF 100 KT IS WITHIN 175 NM ALONG THE N PERIPHERY EXTENDING FROM 15N38W BROADENING TO ENCOMPASS THE AREA FROM 22N-35N E OF 38W TO OVER W AFRICA. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING TROPICAL MOISTURE WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM 10N38W N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO W AFRICA NEAR 21N16W. $$ WALLACE