000 AXNT20 KNHC 171135 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN FEB 17 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 4N30W EQUATOR AT 48W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N EAST OF 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 35W-45W. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ALONG 50W FROM 2N-5N. ...DISCUSSION... MEXICO/GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS MORNING GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER THE NW CORNER OF THE GULF BUT MAINLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 91W-95W. THE MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S SHOWS A STRONG LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT CROSSING THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA BORDER. AS OF 09Z...THE COLD FRONT TRAILS ACROSS SE LOUISIANA AND THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF TO THE MEXICAN COAST JUST N OF TAMPICO. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEWD OVER PARTS OF KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA SUPPORTS THE FRONT. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY MON...AND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY TUE. A 1006 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF AND IS NEAR 21N96W. MODERATE TO STRONG SLY WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0340 UTC INDICATED WIND SPEED OF 15-25 KT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE NLY WINDS ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT BUT THIS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE NE AND SLIGHTLY INCREASE ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT BUILDS IN. WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS IN CONTROL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND IS PRODUCING E/SE SURFACE WINDS WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS CENTERED SW OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N78W WITH THE MID-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED JUST N OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND THIS IS RESULTING IN MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE IS LOCATED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN AND WINDWARD ISLANDS...WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASING FARTHER TO THE W. STRONG SLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE ARE ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS SOUTH MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/CHANNEL INTO WESTERN CUBA AND THE SE PORTION OF THE GULF. AS USUAL...POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING BETWEEN THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA. FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER HONDURAS AND PARTS OF NICARAGUA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE EPAC ITCZ. SURFACE HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST OCCURRING JUST OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. WEST/CENTRAL ATLANTIC... BROAD UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N COVERING THE W ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N38W TO 10N52W. MAXIMUM WINDS WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET ARE ABOUT 70 KT EXTENDING E OF FLORIDA BUT THERE IS VERY LITTLE ASSOCIATED HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH THE FLOW. A DYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY PERSISTS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 32N43W TO 27N53W. A SFC TROUGH...REMNANTS OF THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 29N72W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. PATCHY LOW CLOUDS LIE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND THE TROUGH...BUT OVERALL THERE IS LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY LIES WITHIN A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A 1022 MB HIGH LOCATED JUST SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N64W. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABSORBED BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES EXITING NOW NEW ENGLAND. EAST ATLANTIC... BROAD SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN...FEEDING INTO A COMPLEX UPPER LOW LOCATED NE OF THE AZORES. A 1003 MB OCCLUDED LOW IS LOCATED NEAR MIDWAY BETWEEN THE MADEIRA AND THE AZORES ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE AREA FROM 31N12W CROSSING JUST E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO OVER THE WESTERN SAHARAN COAST. THERE ARE TWO WIND MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW. ONE CORE ROTATES BETWEEN THE CANARY AND THE MADEIRA ISLANDS WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 110 KT WHILE THE SECOND LIES JUST N OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS INTO WESTERN SAHARA WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 90 KT. A STREAM OF HIGH CLOUDS RUNS ALONG THE SECOND JET BEGINNING NEAR 10N40W IN THE TROPICS AND EXTENDING TOWARDS NORTHERN MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING E OF THE OCCLUDED LOW. A SFC TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 31N23W TO 22N32W WITHIN THE CIRCULATION OF THE OCCLUDED LOW. $$ GR