000
AXNT20 KNHC 161147
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 3N25W EQUATOR AT 34W INTO NE 
BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N BETWEEN 14W-30W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N EAST OF 14W TO THE AFRICAN COAST.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE 1025 MB HIGH LOCATED JUST SOUTH 
OF BERMUDA IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF REGION EARLY THIS 
MORNING. THIS MOIST AND UNSTABLE ONSHORE FLOW PAIRED WITH A 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS 
WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. AN ASCAT PASS 
FROM AROUND 0400 UTC SHOWED SELY WINDS OF 15-25 KT ACROSS THE W 
GULF WHILE LIGHTER NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE THE E GULF. AS OF 
09Z...A 1024 MB BUBBLE HIGH IS ANALYZED NEAR THE GEORGIA/FLORIDA 
BORDER. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
COVERS THE AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING OVER CUBA AND THE 
FLORIDA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING FROM THE E 
PACIFIC ACROSS S MEXICO TO OVER THE GULF BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING A 
PLUME OF TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC 
COMBINED WITH DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NE MEXICO WILL RESULT IN 
INCREASING SLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY. THE NEXT COLD 
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF TONIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE REGION 
COURTESY OF THE 1025 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF 
BERMUDAS. THESE WINDS ARE USHERING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS 
WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. SOME OF 
THEM ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING FROM THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 
HISPANIOLA. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO. 
THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH 
OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS THAT IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM 
THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND 
WESTERN CUBA. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE AND 
IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN 
LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HIGH PRES N OF 
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS MOST OF THE 
CARIBBEAN BASIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N48W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 
NEAR 26N61W. AT THIS POINT...A DYING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS 
WWD TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AXIS 
EXTENDS THROUGH 32N48W SW INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 20N56W. A 
1025 MB HIGH IS BEHIND THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA WITH A 
RIDGE ENVELOPING THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS 
IN THE E ATLC NEAR 31N25W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE 
AREA N OF 20N E OF 40W. A SURFACE 998 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 
29N27W WITH THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING N AND THE 
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 31N17W. THIS FRONT PASSES 
THROUGH THE CANARY ISLANDS THEN CONTINUES SW TO 20N26W. THE 
SURFACE LOW IS PRODUCING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE E ATLC N 
OF 25N EAST OF 25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CENTER. ABUNDANT UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEING TRANSPORTED BY STRONG 
SWLY UPPER WINDS FROM N SOUTH AMERICA ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC 
TO THE COAST OF AFRICA OVER MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA.

$$
GR