000
AXNT20 KNHC 160539
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 16 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W...ACROSS THE EQUATOR 
BETWEEN 30W-40W TO 2N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 8N EAST OF 
28W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER SIERRA LEONE.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
RETURN SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED JUST SOUTH 
OF BERMUDA IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED OVER THE GULF REGION TONIGHT 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE N 
GULF WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 90W-94W...INCLUDING PARTS OF THE  
LOUISIANA COAST. MODERATE SE SURFACE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS 
THE W GULF WHILE LIGHTER NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE THE E GULF. 
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA COVERS THE 
AREA WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING OVER CUBA AND THE FLORIDA 
PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING FROM THE E PACIFIC 
ACROSS S MEXICO TO OVER THE GULF BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING A PLUME 
OF THIN HIGH CLOUDS. HIGH PRES OVER THE W ATLC COMBINED WITH 
DEVELOPING LOW PRES OVER NE MEXICO WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SLY 
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF TODAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS 
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF TONIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE REGION 
COURTESY OF THE 1026 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF 
BERMUDAS. THESE WINDS ARE USHERING PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS AND 
HISPANIOLA. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR REVEALS ISOLATED TO 
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO   
AND REGIONAL WATERS. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER 
RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH OF JAMAICA DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL 
SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF 
THE BASIN. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY 
SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS THE ATLC HIGH PRES 
MOVES E IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE SE UNITED 
STATES MON.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 31N52W THEN CONTINUES SW TO 
NEAR 27N63W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND EXTENDING MAINLY WWD 
TO THE NW BAHAMAS. THIS FRONT IS WEAKENING WEST OF 63W. THE 
ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N54W SW 
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 25N58W. A 1026 MB HIGH IS BEHIND THE 
FRONT JUST SOUTH OF BERMUDA WITH A RIDGE ENVELOPING THE WEST AND 
CENTRAL ATLC. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 30N29W 
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 40W. A 
SURFACE 998 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N28W WITH THE ASSOCIATED 
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING N AND THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E 
ATLC NEAR 31N18W JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 22N23W THEN 
WESTWARD TO 18N30W DISSIPATING TO NEAR 17N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING AROUND THE LOW 
CENTER. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE BEHIND THE 
FRONT. ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE/TRANSVERSE HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
BEING TRANSPORTED BY STRONG SWLY UPPER WINDS FROM N SOUTH 
AMERICA ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC TO THE COAST OF AFRICA OVER 
MAURITANIA AND WESTERN SAHARA.

$$
GR