000 AXNT20 KNHC 152342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 3N25W 3N36W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 14W-18W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM 1N24W TO THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 6N10W AND WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 21W-26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RETURN SURFACE FLOW AROUND THE 1028 MB HIGH OVER S GEORGIA IS FIRMLY ESTABLISHED THIS EVENING GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF 88W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND LOUISIANA MOVING E OVER MISSISSIPPI AND SW ALABAMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS WITH NO SHOWERS INDICATED. MODERATE SE SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE W GULF WHILE LIGHTER NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE THE E GULF. BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING OVER CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS S MEXICO TO OVER THE GULF BUT IS ONLY PRODUCING THIN HIGH CLOUDS. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF SAT NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND GENERATING STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY BETWEEN 12N-17N. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND DRAWING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE..LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS E OVER THE W ATLC WITH A 1027 MB HIGH JUST NW OF BERMUDA AND DOMINATING THE ATLC E OF 40W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE IMMEDIATE REGION OF THE FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE REGION NEAR 32N52W TO 27N68W WHERE IT IS BEGINNING TO PUSH N AS A WARM FRONT OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO NEAR ANDROS ISLAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75/90 NM N OF THE WARM FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM E OF COLD FRONT N OF 28N. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N54W SW INTO THE W ATLC TO 25N66W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE W ATLC S OF 30N W OF 60W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS IN THE E ATLC NEAR 30N29W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N E OF 40W. A SURFACE 997 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N29W WITH THE ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING N AND THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE E ATLC NEAR 32N18W JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 24N23W THEN WESTWARD TO 16N36W DISSIPATING TO NEAR 18N53W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 25N FROM 23W-33W. $$ WALLACE