000 AXNT20 KNHC 151803 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI FEB 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 3N25W 3N36W 2S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 12W-15W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 17W-23W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 3S-EQ BETWEEN 43W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N71W. SELY RETURN FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED NEAR KEY WEST FLORIDA. MORE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW GULF ALONG THE COASTS OF NE MEXICO...TEXAS...AND LOUISIANA. SURFACE WINDS ARE 10-15 KT OVER MOST OF THE GULF...AND 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF W CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 83W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF W OF 86W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS DOT THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWERS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM N COLOMBIA TO W CUBA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE E PACIFIC. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS ESPECIALLY W OF 70W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND EXTENDS SW ALONG 32N56W 27N68W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES W TO THE BAHAMAS ALONG 26N74W 24N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N29W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S ALONG 32N20W 25N23W 21N30W 20N40W 21N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 75W. A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 22N BETWEEN 60W-75W. A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-60W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 32N29W TO A BASE IN THE TROPICS NEAR 15N50W. EXPECT... BOTH COLD FRONTS TO PROGRESS E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. $$ FORMOSA