000 AXNT20 KNHC 151203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ...THE ITCZ... 6N8W 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W TO 3N55W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL... FRENCH GUIANA/SURINAME. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 1S BETWEEN 10W AT THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE COASTS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST 60W... AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. THE TAIL END OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS AND CUBA COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS EASTWARD. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 26N70W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N70W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 21N80W. THE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE MOVING NORTHWARD ACCORDING TO LOW CLOUDS IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N77W 27N70W 29N61W 29N63W BEYOND 32N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURVES ON TOP OF CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CLOUDS ARE MOVING ON TOP OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N30W IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 996 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IS NEAR 33N28W ALSO. THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CENTER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ARE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N21W 26N24W 22N36W 22N44W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 22N44W TO 24N48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE THE LINE THROUGH 30N20W 25N24W 21N30 W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 90 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N14W 25N20W 20N30W 17N40W 15N50W 13N60W. A RIDGE GOES FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N47W TO TO 28N54W AND 25N67W. $$ MT