000 AXNT20 KNHC 150619 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI FEB 15 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC ...THE ITCZ... 6N8W 3N20W 2N30W 2N40W TO 3N55W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL... FRENCH GUIANA/SURINAME. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 1S BETWEEN 10W AT THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE COASTS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST 60W... AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. THE TAIL END OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-BAHAMAS SWEEPS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO FLORIDA AND BEYOND. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 27N70W TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N70W 29N63W BEYOND 33N56W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURVES ON TOP OF CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PUSHING HIGH CLOUDS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CLOUDS ARE MOVING ON TOP OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N29W IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 997 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IS NEAR 33N29W ALSO. THE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CENTER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH ARE DRIVING THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N22W 26N25W 22N36W 23N43W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 23N43W TO 25N49W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE THE LINE THROUGH 32N22W 21N37W 21N32W. A RIDGE GOES FROM A 1033 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 35N47W TO TO 28N54W AND 25N67W. $$ MT