000
AXNT20 KNHC 142328
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2245 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N21W 1N31W CROSSING THE 
EQUATOR NEAR 43W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA WITHIN 150/175 NM OF 
LINE FROM 1N45W TO 5N48W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES THE GULF AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
DOMINATES THE GULF THIS EVENING ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH OVER 
E/CENTRAL ALABAMA. MODERATE E TO SE SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE 
W GULF WHILE LIGHTER NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE THE E GULF. BROAD 
UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA COVERS THE GULF WITH THE 
AXIS EXTENDING OVER W CUBA ACROSS THE SE LOUISIANA COAST. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE GULF E OF 90W 
WHILE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND THUS THIN HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
STREAMING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE W GULF. 
RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BANK LOW 
LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA 
COAST AS WELL AS NE MEXICO. THE NEXT FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER 
THE GULF SAT NIGHT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG HIGH 
SURFACE PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND 
GENERATING MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. 
THESE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH 
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY E OF 76W. THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED 
BY AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND DRAWING UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA RICA 
TO OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. OTHERWISE..LITTLE CHANGE IS 
EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDING W OF BERMUDA 
THROUGH 32N67W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE N CENTRAL 
COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N 
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE REMAINING FRONT. THE 
ASSOCIATED DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 67W TO THE 
FLORIDA COAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS THE W 
ATLC W OF THE FRONT. A SECOND COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL 
ATLC NEAR 32N25W EXTENDING SW ALONG 25N32W THEN W TO 25N41W TO 
26N48W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 
ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP 
LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE AREA N OF 23N FROM 21W-42W. A SURFACE 
RIDGE EXTENDS S BETWEEN THESE FRONTS THROUGH 32N49W TO THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE W ATLC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WHILE THE EASTERN FRONT WILL APPROACH 
THE COAST OF W AFRICA BEFORE DISSIPATING. 

$$
WALLACE