000
AXNT20 KNHC 141706
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU FEB 14 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W 2S50W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 22W-35W... 
AND FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 35W-44W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA NEAR 35N86W.  A RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE PROVIDING 
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ELY AT 10 KT E OF 90W...AND SELY 15-25 KT W OF 90W.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER 
THE W GULF OF MEXICO W OF 90W.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH COVERS THE E GULF E OF 90W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE 
GULF EXCEPT FOR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE E PACIFIC.  
EXPECT CONTINUED FAIR WEATHER OVER THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.  A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE AND THE COAST OF TEXAS DUE TO RETURN SURFACE FLOW... 
HOWEVER. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 
INCLUDE HISPANIOLA.  MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
RIDGE IS OVER THE THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 
70W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT FOR THE SW 
CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS 
ARE AGAIN STREAMING IN FROM THE E PACIFIC.  EXPECT MORE SHOWERS 
OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS SW TO THE 
BAHAMAS AND CENTRAL CUBA ALONG 32N68W 26N73W 23N79W.  SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. 
AN AREA OF GALE WINDS ARE N OF 28N AND WITHIN 300 NM E OF THE 
FRONT.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
32N26W AND EXTENDS SW TO 27N33W 26N40W 30N52W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 30W-55W.  WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS E OF 
30W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST N OF THE AREA...S OF THE AZORES 
AT 36N30W.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS PRESENTLY OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N56W TO THE SE 
BAHAMAS NEAR 24N75W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  ALSO EXPECT 
THE OTHER FRONT TO BE JUST W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS IN 24 HOURS 
WITH SHOWERS. 

$$
FORMOSA