000 AXNT20 KNHC 141202 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU FEB 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ...THE ITCZ... 9N12W 4N20W 2N30W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 42W...TO 2S50W INTO EXTREME NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO 1S BETWEEN 10W AT THE COAST OF AFRICA AND THE COASTS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST 60W...AND THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LET US SEE WHAT HAPPENS IF AND WHEN THIS SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST SHOWS A COLD FRONT FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 98W IN MEXICO AND 117W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW/HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SETTLES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT STILL CUTS ACROSS THE AREA...FROM GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND/ABACO ISLAND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF THE U.S.A...SUPPORTING THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA COLD FRONT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 24N77W 29N72W BEYOND 32N69W. THE CLOUD LINE FROM 24N78W TO 20N81W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 16N91W ALONG THE GUATEMALA/ MEXICO BORDER. SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W IN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK AND WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 17N54W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N63W. THIS IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW STILL MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN JUST WEST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND SOUTH OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA...ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND MOVING TO THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EASILY BRING OUT THIS POINT. THE HIGH CLOUDS CUT ACROSS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS EAST OF 63W...FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W...AND NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 76W AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/BELIZE. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 30N29W TO 25N40W 25N50W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 25N50W TO 29N60W. THE PART OF THE FRONT WEST OF 37W CUTS THROUGH THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 50W FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS 24 HOURS AGO HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND NOW IS ON TOP OF MOROCCO. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS MORE READILY APPARENT THAN AN EXACT CENTER OF CIRCULATION ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N16W JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. $$ MT