000 AXNT20 KNHC 140606 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU FEB 14 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC ...THE ITCZ... 10N14W 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 46W...TO 1S48W AT THE COAST OF EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 6N TO 1S BETWEEN 10W AND THE COASTS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST 60W...AND THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH EASTERN NEVADA INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. LET US SEE WHAT HAPPENS IF AND WHEN THIS SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 104W IN MEXICO AND 120W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW/HIGH PRESSURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SETTLES INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE MOST RECENT COLD FRONT. THAT COLD FRONT STILL CUTS ACROSS THE AREA...FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS OF THIS BULLETIN AND THE 14/0000 UTC SURFACE MAP. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS ALONG THE U.S.A. EAST COAST FROM VIRGINIA TO THE CAROLINAS TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N77W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA TO MEXICO JUST EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 17N96W TO 24N101W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDER WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 27N75W BEYOND 32N71W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP IN COVERAGE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 28N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 23N79W...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO 20N84W...TO THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 19N88W...TO 17N91W NEAR THE MEXICO/GUATEMALA BORDER. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 90W AND 93W IN GUATEMALA AND MEXICO. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK AND WEAKENING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 17N54W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N63W. THIS IS ALL THAT REMAINS OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW STILL MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN JUST WEST OF SOUTH AMERICA AND SOUTH OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA AND COLOMBIA...ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND MOVING TO THE NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE AREA. HIGH CLOUDS ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EASILY BRING OUT THIS POINT. THE HIGH CLOUDS CUT ACROSS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/ SUBSIDENCE PRACTICALLY EVERYWHERE. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS NORTH OF 16N60W 17N71W...BETWEEN WESTERN JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN CUBA/SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND NORTH OF 18N WEST OF 80W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN EAST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 26N40W 26N50W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N50W TO 26N60W...A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 26N60W TO 29N63W. THE PART OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 38W AND 63W CUTS THROUGH THE BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ALONG 50W FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND THE CANARY ISLANDS 24 HOURS AGO HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND NOW IS MUCH CLOSER TO THE MOROCCO COAST...IF NOT ON TOP OF IT ALREADY. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS MORE READILY APPARENT THAN AN EXACT CENTER OF CIRCULATION ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N16W JUST EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE MADEIRA ISLANDS. $$ MT