000
AXNT20 KNHC 131716
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED FEB 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 2N20W 1N40W 1S50W.  WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 12W-19W... 
AND FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 20W-50W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED INLAND OVER S TEXAS 
NEAR 28N99W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO.  
A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 30N84W 22N90W 19N95W THEN CONTINUES 
INLAND OVER S MEXICO TO 21N100W.  A VERY ACTIVE SQUALL LINE IS 
E OF THE FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA ALONG 27N81W 24N85W 22N89W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE SQUALL LINE MOVING E.  SURFACE 
WINDS ARE NLY 20-25 KT N OF THE FRONT.  WINDS ARE SLY 25 KT OVER 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...S OF THE SQUALL LINE.   IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF 
MEXICO SUPPORTING THE SURFACE TROUGH.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS 
THE NW GULF.  UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF GULF 
AND FLORIDA.  EXPECT THE SQUALL LINE TO TRAVERSE S FLORIDA AND 
CONTINUE TO THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS.  
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE 
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH RIDGE AXIS ALONG 65W.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA.  EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE 
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N38W AND EXTENDS 
SW TO 29N43W 27N55W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES W TO 27N65W. 
A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT CONTINUES FURTHER W TO 30N70W.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONTS.  AN AREA OF 
GALE WINDS IS OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA N OF 27N BETWEEN 70W 
TO 80W...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  A 
1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N56W.  
THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
AND W AFRICA ALONG 32N11W 27N12W 23N16W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC BETWEEN 35W-50W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 
20N BETWEEN 20W-35W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N 
AND E OF 20W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE CANARY 
ISLANDS NEAR 32N17W.  EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT THAT IS PRESENTLY 
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N65W TO 
CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N79W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.  ALSO 
EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO TRINIDAD 
TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA