000 AXNT20 KNHC 130613 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED FEB 13 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC ...THE ITCZ... 6N10W 3N20W TO 2N30W 2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W... TO 1S49W IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 7N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND THE COASTS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST 60W... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA TO EAST TEXAS TO 26N96W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCH FROM THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA GULF COAST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE NORTH CENTRAL-TO-THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. WE SAW THIS SAME TROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS AGO AS THE TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH MEXICO AND SPREADING PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF ITS LOCATION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHWARD INTO GEORGIA... AND AS FAR TO THE EAST AS 78W NORTH OF 24N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROUGH...STRETCHING FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS JUST NORTH OF HISPANIOLA BEYOND 32N70W. A WARM FRONT REACHES NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. THIS WARM FRONT NOW IS ALONG THE WESTERN END OF WHAT USED TO BE A SURFACE TROUGH. THE TROUGH RESULTED FROM A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM LAST WEEK. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA...STAYING IN THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 72W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADEWIND WIND FLOW. NO ONE WELL-DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS NOTED. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 31W/32W FROM 10N NORTHWARD. A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 34N19WI... APPROACHING NORTHWESTERN AFRICA AND PORTUGAL/SPAIN. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF THE 32N46W 27N57W COLD FRONT. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM 27N57W TO 26N69W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N69W TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. $$ MT