000
AXNT20 KNHC 121743
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 12 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N20W 1N40W EQ50W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N 
BETWEEN 15W-24W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
EQ-4N BETWEEN 24W-47W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE 
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO.  SELY TO SLY SURFACE FLOW COVERS THE 
ENTIRE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OVER THE SE 
GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT 
TIGHTENS.  A COLD FRONT WITH SIGNIFICANT LIGHTNING IS INLAND 
OVER E TEXAS ABOUT 90 NM NW OF HOUSTON MOVING SE.  IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO NEAR 26N89W.  AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E 
OF THE CENTER IS OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO.  WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 82W-88W.  EXPECT 
THIS CONVECTION TO MOVE TO E OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER TEXAS 
TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN 24 HOURS WITH 
CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS... 
HISPANIOLA...AND E CUBA.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF 
PANAMA W OF 81W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE THE 
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  EXPECT CONTINUED 
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 30N57W 
28N64W 28N70W 30N77W.  NO CONVECTION IS ALONG THE FRONT.  THE 
ORIGINAL COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
32N50W TO 26N63W.  A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES SW TO THE 
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N75W.  A DISSIPATING WARM FRONT CONTINUES FURTHER 
W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE FRONTS.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N50W.  ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E AT 
30N40W.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AND 
THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 32N14W 29N14W 26N20W 25N24W.  SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A 
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 30W.  EXPECT...THE REINFORCING COLD 
FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE ORIGINAL COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.  ALSO EXPECT 
SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO TRINIDAD DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

$$
FORMOSA