000 AXNT20 KNHC 121157 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE FEB 12 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC ...THE ITCZ... 6N10W 2N20W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 26W...TO 1S30W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S47W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND THE COASTS OF BRAZIL AND FRENCH GUIANA. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST 60W... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTHWARD TO BERMUDA TO THE AREA JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. ONE ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THIS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N55W TO 28N60W 25N70W. A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 25N70W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO WESTERN CUBA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE PASSING THROUGH 32N52W 28N60W 26N70W 25N75W...AND THEN FROM 23N TO 28N WEST OF 75W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A SECOND FRONT FOLLOWS THE FIRST ONE...PASSING THROUGH 31N59W TO 28N70W TO 28N78W. A DISTINCT CLOUD BOUNDARY IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IDENTIFIES THIS FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW IS IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. IT IS SPREADING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IN FRONT OF IT FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE BETWEEN 80W AND 92W. THIS IS THE SAME SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS IN CENTRAL MEXICO AT LEAST 24 HOURS AGO. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN CROSSES CENTRAL AMERICA...STAYING SOUTH OF 18N...AND CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY TO THE EAST. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA EAST OF 72W. THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED BY MULTILAYERED CLOUDS IN ADVANCE OF THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RELATED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS IN SURFACE TRADEWIND WIND FLOW. NO ONE WELL-DEFINED AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS NOTED. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N81W TO 18N83W. LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE TROUGH WITH NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 41N35W 34N38W 36N41W 12N41W. A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN BETWEEN THE MADEIRAS ISLANDS AND THE AZORES. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO JUST WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 20N23W TO 12N31W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N15W TO THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 23N20W. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A `1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N39W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN 20W AND THE FIRST COLD FRONT 30N55W 25N70W. $$ MT