000
AXNT20 KNHC 111804
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON FEB 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 3N20W EQ30W 2S50W.  
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2S-1N BETWEEN 17W-22W.  
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3S-2N BETWEEN 
28W-35W.  

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF OF 
MEXICO.  STRONGEST WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OVER THE SE GULF AND 
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.    
IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N 
MEXICO NEAR 28N101W.  AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E 
OF THE CENTER IS OVER THE W GULF OF MEXICO.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 92W-96W.  EXPECT THIS 
CONVECTION TO MOVE TO THE E GULF IN 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT 
A NEW COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE COAST OF TEXAS IS 24 HOURS.   

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 
10N-15N E OF 64W.  SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA 
W OF 81W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN 
WITH AXIS ALONG 80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N63W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS FROM 10N-23N 
BETWEEN 58W-74W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
EXCEPT THE NW CARIBBEAN WHERE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
IS NOTED.  EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC EXTENDING SW TO THE BAHAMAS 
ALONG 32N58W 26N70W 23N78W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE FRONT.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 28N47W.  THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE 
E ATLANTIC ALONG 32N22W 29N27W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 
NM OF THE FRONT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE W 
ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 65W-80W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER 
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 23N52W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS N TO 
BEYOND 32N47W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E 
OF 35W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO NEAR 32N47W WITH SHOWERS.  ALSO EXPECT 
SCATTERED SHOWERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BETWEEN 50W-60W 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.   
    
$$
FORMOSA