000 AXNT20 KNHC 102349 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N19W 1N30W 1N41W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 7N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-34W AND S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 18W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE FAR E US MOVING INTO THE NW ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CAROLINA TO GEORGIA COAST. THE STRONGEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC W OF BERMUDA WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG 25N80W TO ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA TO 23N87W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE GULF ITSELF IS DOMINATED BY UPPER WSW FLOW DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO OVER THE W GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO TO 24N97W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS CLEAR THIS EVENING. HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE IS BUILDING S OVER THE GULF AND WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE GULF UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUE NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO 75W WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING MODERATE/STRONG SURFACE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS GENERATING SIMILAR ACTIVITY N OF 21N W OF 81W TO OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OTHERWISE THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR UPPER AIR THUS LIMITING ANY OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE FAR E US AND NW ATLC EXTENDS A DISSIPATING FRONT E OF BERMUDA THROUGH 32N63W TO 30N66W AND A SECOND STRONGER FRONT W OF BERMUDA THROUGH 32N68W TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 26N77W CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO BEYOND 25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT/TROUGH. AN UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE S CENTRAL ATLC/W TROPICAL ATLC COVERING THE AREA FROM 6N-27N BETWEEN 50W-75W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 25N73W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO E CUBA NEAR GUANTANAMO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS N OF THE AZORES EXTENDING AN UPPER TROUGH S TO 21N E OF 38W. A SECOND WEAKER UPPER LOW IS NE OF MADEIRA ISLANDS EXTENDING S TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. A WEAKENING 1012 MB SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN THE REGION OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR NEAR 30N17W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN SAHARA TO 25N15W BUT DUE TO DRY AIR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 27N50W. A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS S OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH WITHIN 125/150 NM OF LINE FROM 14N32W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 18N16W. $$ WALLACE