000 AXNT20 KNHC 100612 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN FEB 10 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N3W 2N20W 2N35W 3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 3N2W TO 2N8W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150-180 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 20W AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... RATHER FAST MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT ACROSS THE CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SWEEPING EWD IN STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT. THE MOST RECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD TO A BASE OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N87W. MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR APALACHICOLA FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. THIS FRONT WAS MOVING SE AT 15-20 KT AND IS EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE A WEAKENING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS S FLORIDA FROM NEAR PALM BEACH TO THE S-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 24N90W LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOSING ITS DEFINITION SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60-90 NM SE OF THE FRONT JUST N OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM PANAMA TO HISPANIOLA AND CONTINUES NEWD INTO THE ATLC W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE WWD JUST TO THE S OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. AN EMBEDDED SMALL MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS JUST S OF THE MONA PASSAGE NEAR 17N67W. CONFLUENT FLOW WITHIN THE SHEAR AXIS MANIFESTED ITSELF IN VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE OVER THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE NOTED ELSEWHERE. THIS SUBSIDENCE WAS LIMITING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPANSIVE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN RESULTING IN MODERATE/STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A 2334 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED 30 KT WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS IS PROVIDING SOME SUPPORT FOR AN EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM 32N73W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR PALM BEACH AND JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 19N BETWEEN 40W AND 75W IS DOMINATED BY AN EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AND EMBEDDED ANTICYCLONE NEAR 25N60W. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28N52W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR E ATLC EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N16W ACROSS THE W COAST OF MALI AND MAURITANIA THEN TURNS WSWWD THROUGH 20N22W 18N35W THEN UNDERCUTS THE RIDGE NOTED ABOVE THROUGH 18N50W TO THE NE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 27N17W ALONG 25N16W THEN SW ALONG 23N20W TO 22N24W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 29N14W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 30N BETWEEN 10W-15W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 4N/5N TO 40W AND A WEAKENING JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 14N35W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 19N16W. $$ COBB