000
AXNT20 KNHC 091803
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 09 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 1N20W 2N30W 2N40W THEN 
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR EQ50W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS S OF LIBERIA FROM EQ-3N BETWEEN 8W-13W.  ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 13W-26W...AND FROM 
1N-3N BETWEEN 33W-37W.    

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO THE 
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 27N80W 24N89W.  ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  AN AREA OF ACTIVE 
LIGHTNING IS NOTED ALONG THE FRONT FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 
84W-87W.  ELSEWHERE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO 
FROM S LOUISIANA TO SE TEXAS ALONG 30N91W 28N97W.  NO 
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS NOTED WITH THIS FRONT.  IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE 
GULF OF MEXICO. A 90 KT JETSTREAM IS OVER THE E GULF PROVIDING 
LIFT FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE STATIONARY FRONT.  STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF.  THE BASE OF 
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF DRIVING THE SURFACE 
COLD FRONT E.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MERGE WITH THE 
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER THE FAR 
SE GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 24 HOURS.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MODERATE TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS 30 KT ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS DOTS THE AREA 
MOSTLY S OF 20N.  A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE CAYMAN 
ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 80W-85W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS..A 
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN WITH 
RIDGE AXIS ALONG 75W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA 
EXCEPT NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  EXPECT SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOST LIKELY OVER THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ALONG THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 
FROM PANAMA TO BELIZE.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 
32N71W TO S FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N50W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  A 1009 MB 
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 
26N19W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 24N-28N 
BETWEEN 17W-20W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE RIDGE IS OVER 
THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W-80W.  A LARGE TROUGH IS N OF 15N 
BETWEEN 10W-50W.  AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 31N17W.    
  
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FORMOSA