000 AXNT20 KNHC 082304 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI FEB 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N9W 4N13W 3N21W ALONG THE EQUATOR FROM 30W TO 44W THE INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1S50W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3.5N TO INLAND OVER SW AFRICA BETWEEN 5W-7W. LARGE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 12W-19W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 8W-10W INCLUDING THE COAST OF LIBERIA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERING THE E US AND INTO THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO PULL NE OUT OF THE REGION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT REMAINS IN THE W ATLC BECOMING STATIONARY AS IT CROSSES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE CONTINUING ALONG 24N88W AND IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE FROM THERE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 88W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FROM 91W-94W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND N TEXAS AND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE US OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GULF IS CURRENTLY UNDER SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE BY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN SUN/MON THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA TUE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED JUST S OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS EXTENDING AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE CARIBBEAN W OF 78W. AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR MARTINIQUE NW ACROSS HAITI TO THE E TIP OF CUBA DOMINATING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC COUPLED WITH THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS PRODUCING A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND IS GENERATING STRONG SURFACE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR UPPER AIR ARE LIMITING ANY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER... THE STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE E US AND NW ATLC EXTENDS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION THROUGH 32N72W TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A FRONT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI NIGHT AS A SECOND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SE US COAST SAT NIGHT AND CONTINUING MOVING EASTWARD AND WEAKEN LATE MON INTO TUE. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS THE W ATLC BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT THROUGH WED INCREASING WINDS OVER THE AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 18N FROM 16W-32W WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 28N21W. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 29N22W JUST W OF THE WESTERN MOST CANARY ISLANDS TO 22N20W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N-31N BETWEEN 14W-21W INCLUDING THE CANARY ISLANDS. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28N50W. AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 4N TO 40W AND A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 140 KT ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 15N40W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA NEAR 20N16W. $$ WALLACE