000 AXNT20 KNHC 081740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI FEB 08 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC ...THE ITCZ... THE ITCZ AXIS IS PRETTY ACTIVE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON CLOSE TO THE AFRICAN COAST. IT AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 5N20W 2N30W 2N42W EQUATOR AT 50W INTO NE BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-7N EAST OF 21W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 6N WEST OF 27W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 15Z...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF REGION THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...THEN CONTINUES SW TO NEAR 25N86W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. THE WEAK 1014 MB LOW ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF THIS MORNING HAS DISSIPATED AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE GULF. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT FURTHER SEWD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN DISSIPATES. A BROKEN BAND OF MAINLY LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY INVADE THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NOW...LIGHT TO MODERATE N TO NE WINDS ARE WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE N GULF STATES AND WATERS WITH A WEAK 1020 MB HIGH JUST N OF TAMPA BAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC ACROSS N-CENTRAL MEXICO INTO THE GULF. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... STRONG SFC HIGH PRES LOCATED N OF AREA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION...RESULTING IN FRESH ELY WINDS CARRYING ON FRAGMENTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME OF THEM ARE NOW AFFECTING THE N LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS WITH A FEW SHORT LIVED SHOWERS. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 81W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN CONTINUES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH A DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO EVIDENT JUST SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. A QUIKSCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1100 UTC INDICATED ELY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT BLOWING ACROSS THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN MAINTAINS A FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MAIN FEATURE REMAINS A 1027 MB HIGH SITUATED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 27N50W WITH A RIDGE COVERING THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING A SWATH OF MODERATE ELY WINDS ACROSS THE N TROPICAL ATLANTIC AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD FRONT SWEEPS INTO THE AREA NEAR NEAR 31N76W THEN CONTINUES SW ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A 80 NM WIDE BAND OF LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS RELATED TO THE FRONT. ALOFT... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE W-CENTRAL ATLC WITH MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND IMPLIED DRY AIR MASS. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTH AND WESTWARD JUST WEST OF THE CANARY ISLANDS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1011 MB SURFACE LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THOSE ISLANDS. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE SE TO 28N195W THEN SW TO NEAR 21N27N. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N SOUTH AMERICA TO THE AFRICAN COAST. THIS CLOUDINESS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAM BRANCH WITH CORE WINDS OF 90-110 KT. $$ GR