000 AXNT20 KNHC 072257 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU FEB 07 2008 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2230 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 4N15W 4N25W 2N37W 2N44W EQUATOR AT 49W INTO NE BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM SOUTH OF AXIS BETWEEN 11W-19W...WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 27W-29W...AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE LOW PRES 1015 MB CENTERED NEAR 26N84W LIFTING OUT TO THE NE THROUGH THE BIG BEND AREA OF NORTH FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES SW TO THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRES NE THROUGH NORTH FLORIDA. CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE WHERE THE FRONT INTERSECTS THE WARMER WATERS OF THE LOOP CURRENT NEAR 15N87W. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT FURTHER EWD INTO NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH FRIDAY AS UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THEN LIFTS OUT TO THE NE. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN DISSIPATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS BRINGING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL THROUGH FRI AS THE UPPER SHORT LIFTS OUT. GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AND MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN...THE MAIN DRIVER REMAINS STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRES. ALOFT...WEAK DIVERGENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BAHAMAS AND A MODEST UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN HONDURAS AND JAMAICA. THE CONVERGENCE OF THE STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ALONG WITH THIS WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT...ARE RESULTING IN CLUSTER OF WEAK CONVECTION SW OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND. THIS WILL DIMINISH AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST AHEAD OF AN UPPER SHORT WAVE OVER THE MAINLAND U.S. NO LET UP IN THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRES REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MAIN FEATURE REMAINS A BROAD 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 30N55W...MAINTAINING A LARGE AREA OF FRESH TRADES GENERALLY SOUTH OF 20N W OF 27N. FURTHER EAST...UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING EASTWARD S OF THE AZORES...WITH AN ASSOCIATED 1011 MB SURFACE LOW SHIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE CANARIES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST TO 26N25W THEN TO NEAR 24N30N. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE AFRICAN COAST BETWEEN SENEGAL TO MOROCCO. $$ CHRISTENSEN